Tide Capital: Institutional Investments Accelerate, BTC Begins Its $1 Million Journey

Summary

• Bitcoin’s allocation value is becoming increasingly prominent as institutional investors ramp up their holdings. $100,000 may be just the beginning.
• Altcoin season is already here. Billions of USDT are flowing into exchanges, with meme and DeFi sectors worth watching.

Institutional Accumulation Accelerates: $100,000 is Just the Starting Point

Since November, Bitcoin has continuously hit new all-time highs, ushering in a robust upward trend. Tide Capital observes that the current rally shares striking similarities with the upward phase seen earlier this year (February to March), notably the absence of significant pullbacks. Even during short-term price fluctuations, BTC has consistently recovered quickly, demonstrating strong and sustained buying pressure.

The core driving force behind this trend is the continuous inflow of institutional funds. So far, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed $35 billion. At the same time, institutions like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital continue to increase their holdings, with single-week purchases amounting to billions of dollars. This institutional activity has provided strong support to both market sentiment and liquidity, further solidifying Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

From a global asset allocation perspective, Bitcoin is emerging as an essential choice for traditional financial institutions, and this trend is accelerating. According to Tide Capital’s analysis, the BTC/Nasdaq ratio has strengthened significantly after breaking through a long-term downtrend line, setting new highs. Amid a record-breaking U.S. stock market, Bitcoin has successfully absorbed spillover capital from equities, indicating growing recognition among traditional investors.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped from 2.7 million coins at the beginning of the year to 2.2 million, a reduction of nearly 20%. Institutional investors are purchasing large quantities of Bitcoin and transferring them to cold wallets, further reducing circulating supply. Tide Capital believes that amid strong demand and shrinking supply, Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise.

Currently, Bitcoin has climbed to the 7th position in global asset rankings, gradually narrowing the gap with traditional assets like gold. However, compared to gold — the top-ranked asset — Bitcoin still has nearly 10x growth potential. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization expands, its consensus in the global financial system will continue to solidify. Tide Capital predicts that more investment institutions, listed companies, and even sovereign wealth funds will gradually incorporate Bitcoin into their portfolios.

Thus, for BTC, $100,000 is not the endpoint but a new starting line. The difficulty for BTC to rise from $100,000 to $1 million will likely be lower than the move from $10,000 to $100,000.

Altcoin Season Has Begun: Focus on Meme and DeFi

Driven by Bitcoin’s strong performance, investment enthusiasm in the altcoin market has surged. BTC dominance (BTC.D) has fallen below its 120-day moving average, breaking the upward trend that began in 2023. Tide Capital sees Bitcoin’s declining market share as a key signal for the start of altcoin season, with capital flowing into other crypto asset sectors.

Many altcoins are primarily traded via USDT, and the sharp increase in USDT issuance further confirms the arrival of altcoin season. Since November, over $10 billion worth of USDT has been minted and transferred to exchanges — daily figures surpassing the March bull market by over 50%.

Another notable trend is the significant net inflows into ETH spot ETFs, which have, on some days, even exceeded Bitcoin spot ETF inflows. This indicates a rising institutional risk appetite, with capital favoring more volatile crypto assets. Tide Capital believes that within these high-volatility assets, the meme and DeFi sectors deserve special attention.

U.S. mainstream exchanges are increasingly embracing Meme tokens, boosting their popularity. The largest U.S. crypto exchange, Coinbase, has listed several meme tokens, including PEPE, FLOKI, TURBO, and MOG. Similarly, Robinhood — the leading U.S. retail trading platform — has listed PEPE and WIF, both of which have performed impressively. As this market cycle is primarily driven by U.S. institutional investors, the actions of major U.S. exchanges will significantly influence market hotspots. Tide Capital expects these developments to rapidly expand the reach of meme tokens, driving further mainstream adoption.

Meanwhile, with improving market sentiment, the DeFi sector is showing robust growth. Leading lending protocol AAVE has seen its Total Value Locked (TVL) surpass $21 billion, a new record high. Monthly trading volume on decentralized exchanges also reached $300 billion in November, setting a fresh benchmark. According to Tide Capital’s research, the fundamentals of the DeFi sector are steadily improving, laying a solid foundation for higher investment value.

Of course, being in a bull market doesn’t mean assets will rise every day. Over-leveraged markets often collapse briefly before recovering. Tide Capital’s observations suggest that the first wave of altcoin corrections has ended. On December 10th, over $1 billion in long positions were liquidated, bringing funding rates back to normal levels from overheated conditions. This correction has resulted in a healthier market structure, supporting further upward movement.

Conclusion

With institutional investors accelerating their allocations, BTC is on a new journey toward $1 million.

Tide Capital

Tide Capital is a research-driven digital asset investment and trading firm. We study macro and fundamentals to capture beta and alpha opportunities from crypto waves to financial tides. Driven by value, we aim to invest in early-stage projects with significant growth potential. Concurrently, we assess market cycles to inform our investment decisions, trading in the public market to achieve returns.

website: tidecap.com

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Disclaimer

The information and data presented in this article are obtained from public sources, and Tide Capital makes no guarantees regarding their accuracy and completeness. Any predictions, speculations, or opinions contained in this article are statements about future events and may differ significantly from actual results due to limitations in data timeliness, assumption validity, uncertainty factors, and unforeseeable risks. Any advice and opinions in this article are for reference purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to buy or sell any digital assets. They do not constitute investment advice or solicitations. The strategies that Tide Capital may adopt may be the same, different, or unrelated to those inferred by readers based on this article. Investors should carefully consider any decisions and seek appropriate legal and financial advice when necessary. Any misunderstanding or misuse of the content in this article does not constitute the responsibility of the author or the publishing institution.